Michael Bloomberg: An Option That is in the Money

Photo originally published in CityWatch LA , 11/14/19.

Photo originally published in
CityWatch LA
, 11/14/19.

by Sara Corcoran, Courts Monitor Publisher
(Originally published in CityWatch LA, 11/14/19)

DC DISPATCH-Michael Bloomberg, the former Mayor of NYC, has officially expressed interest in earning the Democratic nomination for 2020.

Although his pathway to the nomination may be unconventional, likely forgoing the four early but low-vote states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina and instead making a concentrated Super Tuesday attack for the big-delegate states including California and Texas — Bloomberg has the right moxie, background, temperament, and demographic appeal to unseat Trump in the next Presidential election. 

The current roster of Democrats lacks a candidate that has the ability to comfortably beat Trump.  Moreover, recent swing state polling margins confirm this. All the current Democratic front runners are either negative or in the margin of error when paired on the electoral college map against Trump. Bloomberg has the best chance of changing this paradigm. Although national polls that have shown Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden beating Trump in the popular vote, it is only Biden who eeks out a win in some of the swing states, including Arizona and Virginia, with an outcome too close to call. 

The current lineup of Democratic candidates does not offer enough risk insurance against a Trump presidency, given the likelihood that 2020 will be determined within the margin of error yet again. Joe Biden, once the best shot to beat Trump, has been weakened by the mere allegation and perception of corrupt practices by his family in Ukraine. Although the impact on Biden’s polls of Trump’s attacks tends to fluctuate, to dismiss it as a contingent  liability is naive. Trump’s attacks are not likely to stop. If anything, they will increase and become more vicious. Biden’s defense of his son has been to evade and plead ignorance. There is a real risk that he will not be able to absorb the Trump onslaught, particularly if he remains financially vulnerable. 

After Bloomberg officially expressed interest in pursuing a 2020 run, the reaction has been mixed, but more favorable to some who are looking for a middle of the road option. For Independents, swing voters, and moderate Democrats, this should be a welcome move. His announcement may also serve to quell the rumblings of a possible third try by Hillary Clinton. Biden has publicly approved of a Bloomberg run, although privately, he may be shaken. On the other hand, both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have piled on with criticism of “billionaires buying their way into an election.” 

Although both Sanders and Warren (who are millionaires, not billionaires) have had impressive careers, they will not be able to carry the white, working-class vote in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. They are both Washington insiders in a country that has an increasing appetite for “outsider” Presidential candidates even those who are independently wealthy. It is ironic that Tom Steyer, a billionaire, has been unable to create traction with voters, suggesting that some unknown quantifier is at play. 

Bloomberg is a self-made billionaire who has created jobs. Coming from humble beginnings, Bloomberg made his wealth the old-fashioned way, he earned it. His career on Wall Street started as a partner Solomon Brothers. As the creator of the Bloomberg terminal, Michael Bloomberg transformed the way professionals could access, interpret, and understand capital market relationships with banking, credit, currency and government finance to name a few. Anyone who has had the pleasure of accessing a terminal appreciates the wealth of information that it affords. Today, Bloomberg is a diverse conglomerate that focuses on financial services, software, and media with over 20,000 employees and revenues north of $9 billion. 

As much as the liberal base of the Democratic Party thinks they drive the nomination process, it is incumbent upon this branch to support the candidate that has the best chance of beating Trump. It is Bloomberg whose option is in the money (“in the money” refers to a concept in options where the underlying security’s price is greater than its strike price). At a minimum, Bloomberg can distract Trump away from Biden and allow the former VP to recover from the onslaught against his family. Bloomberg is a covered option that has value whether you go long or go short. 

In the present environment where much of the Democrats case against Trump centers on charges of foreign influence and accommodations, Bloomberg will have to deflect claims that his business interests  make him susceptible to foreign influence given his various subsidiaries with China in particular. Bloomberg will have to address the allegations of  firing  journalists and changing editorial content in its news in exchange for maintaining access and financial terminal business. That said, Bloomberg can differentiate himself from Trump by demonstrating he understands what putting his assets in a trust involves — he did it when running for mayor of New York. Bloomberg’s brand isn’t about chaos and nepotism. He has a clear understanding of how to avoid conflicts of interest. 

Instead, his focus is on creating jobs, accepting climate change as a threat, and instituting concrete economic policies. He has run a massively complex city and has proven executive skills. He has developed relationships with mayors and governors across the country and is data driven in his responses to problems. When Trump won the presidency, he allegedly called Bloomberg and asked him for advice. “Hire people smarter than you,” he reportedly recommended. Trump was obviously too insecure to follow this suggestion with disastrous consequences and claims that Bloomberg lacks “the magic” to win. We shall see how much magic Trump brings to the next election as he turns his attention to a possible Bloomberg threat. 

A repeat of the 2016 Presidential race would be devastating to the Democratic Party but if they underplay the significance of state data in favor of national data, it is likely to occur. Progressive Democrats keep looking at national polling with the hopes the state polling will eventually mirror it, but this won’t happen without the right candidate who leads by more than 5%. Trump salivates at the prospect of fighting an election into the margin of error where the dirt he cultivates against opponents can have magnified value and impact. When polling data goes below 5%, foreign actors can interfere indiscriminately without being identified, at least in the short run.

Michael Bloomberg made his fortune by making wise choices about options. If the Democrats want to win the 2020 election, they need to do the same.

(Sara Corcoran writes DC Dispatch and covers the nation’s capital from Washington for CityWatch. She is the Publisher of National Courts Monitor the California and National Courts Monitor and contributes to Daily Koz, The Frontier Post in Pakistan and other important news publications.) Prepped for CityWatch by Linda Abrams.

 

Trump vows to revoke waiver allowing California to set auto emissions

 Photo credit: Damian Dovarganes/AP as reported by NPR on 9/18/19.

Photo credit: Damian Dovarganes/AP as reported by NPR on 9/18/19.

President Trump announced he will revoke a 2013 waiver issued by the EPA to the California Air Resources Board which allowed the state to set stricter air-quality standards than those imposed on the federal level.

According to an NPR report, “The move comes after the Department of Justice earlier this month launched an antitrust investigation into a July deal between California and four automakers – Ford, Volkswagen, Honda, and BMW – and is seen as a broader effort by the White House to rollback efforts to combat climate change.”

The report notes, “California’s Attorney General Xavier Becerra has vowed to take the Trump administration to court. Speaking on Tuesday, California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom said that while the White House ‘has abdicated its responsibility,’ his state ‘has stepped up.'”

Court rebukes President Trump for blocking followers on Twitter

Photo Credit: Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times as reported in The New York Times on 7/9/19.

Photo Credit: Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times as reported in The New York Times on 7/9/19.

How the First Amendment functions in the social media age gained further clarity this week when a federal appeals court ruled that President Trump violated the Constitution by blocking people from following his Twitter account.

“Because Mr. Trump uses Twitter to conduct government business, he cannot exclude some Americans from reading his posts — and engaging in conversations in the replies to them — because he does not like their views, a three-judge panel on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in New York, ruled unanimously,” The New York Times reports.

Tuesday’s ruling may be appealed.

“Mr. Trump’s legal team argued, among other things, that he operated the account merely in a personal capacity, and so had the right to block whomever he wanted for any reason — including because users annoyed him by criticizing or mocking him,” The New York Times reports.

“Courts have increasingly been grappling with how to apply the First Amendment, written in the 18th century, to the social-media era,” The Times continues. “In 2017, for example, the Supreme Court unanimously struck down a North Carolina law that had made it a crime for registered sex offenders to use websites like Facebook.”

The bleak state of the immigration court system

markus-spiske-1475927-unsplashA recent article by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) outlines the current state of the immigration court system and it is bleak: “In a report released earlier this year, the American Bar Association described the U.S. immigration court system as facing an ‘existential crisis,’ an ‘irredeemably dysfunctional’ system ‘on the brink of collapse.'”

The report notes a backlog of 900,000 cases quoting The Economist: “People will die of old age in America before they ever acquire the legal right to live in America. This is an extraordinary failure to govern.”

According to the article, Trump’s new regulations have just exacerbated the problem, comparing the complexity of the immigration courts system to the tax code. They also note that the massive backlog of cases “have led to judges rushing to complete cases, compromising their ethical obligations and violating immigrants’ due process rights…”

Deportation order for 11-year-old draws attention to courts’ woes

Laura Maradiaga-Alvarado, 11, was ordered deported without her family. Photo credit: Fiel Houston as reported by NBC News.

Laura Maradiaga-Alvarado, 11, was ordered deported without her family. Photo credit: Fiel Houston as reported by NBC News.

The near-deportation of a solitary 11-year-old child earlier this year highlights, critics say, the backlogs and turmoil surrounding federal immigration courts.

“A federal immigration judge in Houston signed a deportation order for Laura Maradiaga-Alvarado, originally from El Salvador, on March 12,” explains an NBC News article.

In the wake of publicity about the child’s plight, the judge ordered a new hearing scheduled for May 20, officials said.

“The deportation order has been attributed to a mistake made after a hearing scheduled in February for the girl, her mother and her sister was delayed by the government shutdown,” the article notes.

A March report by the American Bar Association indicated “that since its 2010 review of the court system, things had worsened ‘considerably,’” NBC News reports.

“The same issues identified then persist nearly a decade later: inadequate staffing, training and hiring; growing backlogs; inconsistent decision patterns among judges, particularly in asylum cases, and adoption of video-conference technology that impedes fair hearings. The situation, it said, has been exacerbated by years of congressional inaction while enforcement has increased under the Trump administration,” the article notes.

Anonymous Alfalfa

by Sara Corcoran, Courts Monitor Publisher
(Originally published in CityWatch LA on 2/14/19)

 You can use the attached image with the caption: Senator John Kerry steps down as Alfalfa president (Photo originally published in CityWatch LA)


Senator John Kerry steps down as Alfalfa president (Photo originally published in CityWatch LA)

Every 3rd week in January, the “.02%” take over Washington DC to host their annual dinner at the Capital Hilton. Established in 1913, the Alfalfa Club cultivates its membership of elite powerbrokers from all over the United States. 

With a membership of 200– including Fortune 500 executives, politicians, and Presidents.— members invite guests to attend the DC dinner. This is a seldom refused invitation. However, breaking with long-standing tradition, the ever-insecure Trump declined the invite for 2018 and 2019. 

So, if you weren’t one of the lucky few invited to attend the passing of the gavel from former Senator John Kerry to newly elected Alfalfa President, Senator Mitt Romney, you can still be a spectator from the basement of the Hay Adams Hotel. If there is an optimal time to catch a glimpse of the accomplished and well-heeled crowd, it’s the weekend of January 25th. 

Read more here.

Health care law in limbo during government shutdown

 The appointment of acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker may be delayed to the government shutdown. Photo Credit: Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call file photo as reported by Roll Call, 1/11/19.

The appointment of acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker may be delayed to the government shutdown. Photo Credit: Douglas Graham/CQ Roll Call file photo as reported by Roll Call, 1/11/19.

In December, a federal judge in Texas struck down the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, but under appeal, the status of the health care law remains in limbo during a partial government shutdown.

“The partial government shutdown halted a major challenge to the 2010 health care law among other civil litigation on Friday, as Justice Department lawyers sought the same in a challenge from three Senate Democrats to the appointment of Matthew Whitaker as acting attorney general,” reports Rollcall.com.

“The federal court system will start feeling the crunch of the shutdown on Jan. 18 when the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts estimates it will run out of the court fee balances and other non-appropriated funds that so far allowed for regular operations,” notes an article by Roll Call.

“Courts have been asked to delay or defer non-mission critical expenses, such as new hires, non-case related travel, and certain contracts to stretch funds to that date. Criminal cases are expected to proceed uninterrupted.”

California federal judge blocks Trump birth control coverage rules in 13 states

Photo credit: AP File Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, as reported by AP on 1/13/19.

Photo credit: AP File Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, as reported by AP on 1/13/19.

According to the AP, on Sunday, 1/13/19, Judge Haywood Gilliam of California granted a request for a preliminary injunction by California, 12 other states and Washington, D.C.,  to block Trump administration rules, which would allow more employers to opt out of providing women with no-cost birth control. According to the report, “The plaintiffs sought to prevent the rules from taking effect as scheduled today while a lawsuit against them moved forward… But Gilliam limited the scope of the ruling to the plaintiffs, rejecting their request that he block the rules nationwide.”

DACA program, upheld by 9th Circuit, faces its day in Supreme Court

Photo Credit: Darin Moriki/Bay Area News Group as reported by The Mercury News, 11/8/18.

Photo Credit: Darin Moriki/Bay Area News Group as reported by The Mercury News, 11/8/18.

The subject of continued court battles, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program could see its fate decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

“An Obama-era program granting hundreds of thousands of so-called Dreamers protection from deportation will live on, a federal appeals court ruled Thursday, dealing the Trump administration a significant blow and setting the stage for a showdown in the Supreme Court next year,” The Mercury News reported on Nov. 8.

“The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a nationwide injunction blocking the White House from rescinding the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which has protected about 700,000 undocumented immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children, including 200,000 in California,” The Mercury News reported.

The Atlantic speculated about how the legal battle could play out at the nation’s highest court.

“The Court could do a number of things. It could grant a stay, which would temporarily stop further legal proceedings or the enforcement of orders. If a stay isn’t granted, confusion could reign, with DACA continued in some states and not in others. In any case, at least five justices would have to agree on next steps, and with a split Court a consensus would be difficult to achieve,” The Atlantic noted.

Commerce secretary ordered to testify about Census citizenship question

Photo credit: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images as reported by NPR on 9/21/18.

Photo credit: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images as reported by NPR on 9/21/18.

A Trump administration official will testify out of court about a controversial Census citizenship question, due to a judge’s order.

“A federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to make its main official behind the 2020 census citizenship question — Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross — available to testify out of court for the lawsuits over the hotly contested question,” National Public Radio reports.

Ross will sit for a deposition, per the order of U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman in Manhattan federal court.

“Furman has limited questioning of Ross by the plaintiffs’ attorneys to four hours, noting that the commerce secretary has already testified in Congress and the administration has released a record of internal documents about his decision to add the citizenship question,” according to NPR.